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Dilemma-Catalytic Converters

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Platinum, palladium to hitch a ride on rosy auto sales forecast and deep cuts in supply

Frik Els | December 7, 2011 Print Article
platinum_palladium_auto_car_400

Bloomberg reports carmakers will use a record 3.82 million ounces or $7 billion of platinum in catalytic converters next year – 17% more than this year – diminishing oversupply to 81,000 ounces from 295,000 ounces.

Helped by the first contraction in mine output – albeit a slight 1% – since 2008 according to Barclays Capital, prices will average $1,845 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2012, 23% more than now, the median of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Barclays Capital anticipates a shortage of 272,000 ounces of palladium next year, compared with a surplus of 760,000 ounces in 2011.

LMC Automotive, which recently bought JD Powers’ forecasting business, predicts globally automakers will sell a record 79.5 million cars and light commercial vehicles in 2012.

While European sales are predicted to fall US monthly sales figures could reach an annnualized 14 million by mid-2012, up from an upwardly revised 12.7 million this year. Reuters reported last month China, the world’s largest automobile market, is likely to see car demand grow between 3–10% percent in 2012, compared with about 5–6% expected for this year and down from 33% in 2010.

Platinum for January delivery on the Nymex exchange was trading flat at $1,521 an ounce. The precious metal hit a 2011 high on August 22 of $1,915, but has recovered from a low of $1,472 at the start of October. March futures in palladium, also used in catalytic converters, extended its 13% rally of last week, the most since October 2008, to trade at an intra-day high of just under $690. By 7:30am EST the metal had fallen back to $680.

MINING.com reported earlier this week South Africa’s biggest mine union sealed a 2-year wage deal with Lonmin, averting a possible strike against the world’s third largest platinum producer. World number one and two Anglo American Platinum and Impala Platinum clinched similar deals earlier this year, significantly removing threats of labour unrest to 75% of the global production. South Africa together with Russia account for almost 90% of global output.


Waking the Sleeping Giant

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I recently had the privilege of speaking at a three-day meeting of the Electric Power Research Institute in Austin, Texas. The topic was biomass (what else?).

For those readers not familiar with EPRI, it’s the nation’s leading collection of scientists, engineers, academicians and industry representatives who spend lots of time thinking about the generation, delivery and use of electricity. Unlike many of us in the “merchant” world of independent power production, EPRI is 90 percent comprised of utilities—think Duke Energy Corp., Southern Co., American Electric Power Co. Inc. and Tennessee Valley Authority. In other words, it’s a sector of the economy with lots to say about the future of energy, and the political (and economic) clout to get it done. 

Dave O’Connor, EPRI’s go-to guy on biomass, organized the conference and asked me to speak. EPRI doesn’t lobby, but figured I would provide an unvarnished view of how politics is shaping the biomass sector. As I sat waiting my turn at the podium, I heard that biomass represents one of the best opportunities for renewable base-load generation, particularly in the Southeast; that members were looking at cofiring, torrefaction, retirement of smaller coal plants; and that biomass is a way to complement local economies and provide jobs while also providing a disposal option for material that would otherwise generate methane in landfills. All good, except that in their perspective, regulatory uncertainty is causing a “chilling” effect on investment in the sector. Boiler Maximum Achievable Control Technology and carbon are their biggest concerns. 

The old adage—“be at the table or run the risk of being on the menu”—couldn’t be more appropriate as biomass is considered by federal and state policymakers. Like all of us on the merchant side of power generation, utilities seem to appreciate the opportunity of biomass. What we need now is their help. Before the U.S. EPA are two issues that directly affect our industry—revised boiler and Non-Hazardous Secondary Materials rules, and how the Tailoring Rule will regulate biogenic emissions. Many regulated utilities have yet to speak out on these important issues.

For too long, the sector has been balkanized into landowners, utilities, merchant developers and owners, paper mills, and the utility sector. To be sure, we serve different constituencies with sometimes conflicting views on national energy or tax policy. Despite these differences, we share the fundamental belief that biomass energy is critically important to our economy, our environment, and the health of our forests and farms. For that reason, we are coming together like never before. It’s now time for all of the nation’s utilities to join our effort in providing scientific support on the carbon benefits of biopower and to work with EPA on achieving sensible, science-based MACT and solid waste regulations.


Author: Bob Cleaves
President and CEO, Biomass Power Association
www.USABiomass.org


World Risking an Inefficiency

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World is risking an inefficient, insecure, high-carbon future, warns IEA

The world is risking locking itself into an inefficient, insecure, high-carbon future unless decisive action is taken swiftly, warned the International Energy Agency (IEA) yesterday.

The admonition came as the organisation launched the latest edition of its World Energy Outlook (WEO).

Governments around the globe need to introduce stronger measures to drive energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies, says IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.

“Growth, prosperity and rising population will inevitably push up energy needs over the coming decades. But we cannot continue to rely on insecure and environmentally unsustainable uses of energy,” she says.

According to the scenario modelled in the WEO, cumulative CO2 emissions will drive the long-term average temperature rise to 3.5°C.

The model assumes primary energy demand will rise by a third between now and 2035, driven mainly by non-OECD economies, with the proportion of fossil fuels in use falling from 81% to 75% and renewables increasing from 13% to 18%.

While such an increase in renewables will require subsidies to rise from current levels of around $64 billion to $250 billion in 2035, this is still much less than the subsidies for fossil fuels that currently amount to £409 billion, points out the IEA.

But the starkest warning of the report is that if new policies are not implemented by 2017 the world is on track for an average temperature rise of 6°C.

The world has already reached the point of 390 parts per million (ppm) of CO2, four-fifths of the way to the limit of 450 ppm that would keep temperature rises to 2°C.

“As each year passes without clear signals to drive investment in clean energy, the ‘lock-in’ of high-carbon infrastructure is making it harder and more expensive to meet our energy security and climate goals,” says IEA’s chief economist Fatih Birol.


Australia New Carbon Tax

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Australia New Carbon Tax


http://www.energyefficiencynews.com/i/4614/

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Scotland Renewable Energy


EPA CUT SOME SLACK ON U.S. POWER PLANTS

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US EPA to relax air pollution rules for power plants

After announcing a delay to its new greenhouse gas standards, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) appears to be proposing to relax its new rules for limiting smog-forming chemicals from power plants, which will come into force in January next year.

According to media reports, the EPA is proposing to change the rule, which will require around 1000 facilities in 27 states to cut sulphur dioxide by 73% and nitrogen oxide by 54% compared to 2005 levels by 2014.

The EPA’s proposal for the Cross State Air Pollution rule would increase pollution credits in 10 states by 1%, leading to 1.3% more emissions, says Reuters.

Last month, the EPA also dropped plans for a ruling on ozone pollution after political pressure.

But the Agency maintains that the changes to the Cross State Air Pollution Rule are merely a routine technical adjustment of the levels based on new data from local and state authorities.


IMPROVING ENERGY EFFICIENCY ON ENGINES

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The US Department of Energy (DOE) has this week pledged $8.4 million to help vehicle manufacturers improve the energy efficiency of engines and powertrains and promised to make vehicle efficiency one of its priorities going forward.

The $8.4 million award will be shared between four projects led by General Motors, Filter Sensing Technologies, Eaton Corporation and MAHLE Powertrain, which will focus on improving thermal efficiencies while meeting federal emission standards for cars, light trucks and commercial vehicles.

Meanwhile, the Department’s Quadrennial Technology Reviewreport (DOE-QTR) identifies vehicle efficiency, the electrification of light-duty fleet vehicles and alternative fuels as three of its six key future strategies, which also include building and industrial efficiency, the modernisation of the electricity grid and clean power.

The Review concludes that the DOE should give greater emphasis to the transport sector and devote its greatest effort to the electrification of vehicles.

But the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has had to delay the announcement of new fuel economy standards from this month to mid-November because of ongoing work to harmonise its rules with those of California, which had been given the authority to set its own standards while the rest of the US caught up.

The new standards will require manufacturers to achieve an average fleet fuel efficiency of 54.5 mpg by 2025, a 5% year on year improvement between 2017 and 2025.

The EPA had planned to release details on how the standards would be calculated and enforced this month, but the Alliance to Save Energy (ASE) says that it is “not concerned” by the delay, given the complexity of the process that involves several federal agencies and California.

“Reliance on oil is the greatest immediate threat to US economic and national security… [and this] announcement in no way diminishes the Obama Administration’s commitment to decreasing US oil dependence and reducing fuel costs,” says the ASE’s Floyd DesChamps.


CHINA TO INVEST IN LOW-CARBON ECONOMY

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China is to invest 2 trillion yuan (over $300 billion) over the next five years to encourage a low-carbon economy, according to Reuters reports.

The news agency quotes Xie Zhenhua, vice minister of theNational Development and Reform Commission, as saying that low-carbon development will be promoted in the country’s current five-year plan, which began this year.

The plan includes creating low-carbon programmes in five provinces and eight cities, as well as 100 centres focusing on use of resources.

The country is also taking steps to tighten air quality standards for thermal power plans and develop a carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry.

According to media reports, China plans to double spending on CCS over the next five years to 400 million yuan (over $60 million).


NUCLEAR PLANT OUT OF PLANS

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Scottish and Southern Energy pulls out of nuclear development plans

UK energy company Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE) has announced that it is pulling out of its nuclear development joint venture with GDF Suez and Iberdrola.

The three partners had planned to develop new nuclear capacity in the UK through the NuGeneration (NuGen) venture, which has a purchase option for up to 3.6 GW near Sellafield in West Cumbria.

The site was secured for an initial cash consideration of £19.5 million and was named as a suitable location for development in the Government’s National Policy Statement for Nuclear Power Generation this summer.

But SSE says it has informed its partners that it wants to sell them its 25% stake in NuGen, marking its withdrawal from the sector.

“The UK will need both nuclear and renewable energy in the future, but we have made it clear from the start of our involvement in NuGen that for SSE our core investment in generation should be in renewable energy,” commented Alistair Phillips-Davies, director of generation and supply at SSE.

Although Phillips-Davies doesn’t rule out future investment in nuclear power, he says that for the moment the company will focus on renewable energy, gas-fired generation, including carbon capture and storage options, and alternative energy developments.

“Given we have no experience of ownership or operations in the nuclear sector,” says Phillips-Davies, “we have always adopted a cautious approach to the financial and other issues associated with nuclear power development.”

For now, he says, SSE believes that the “significant financial and management resources” required to drive NuGen forward would be better deployed by the company elsewhere.

Earlier this week, German engineering giant Siemens announced that it will no longer be producing nuclear power dedicated equipment and components.


SHALE GAS FIELD FOUND

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Huge shale gas field found in northwest England

Energy company Cuadrilla Resources has claimed that there is a huge shale gas field in Lancashire, in the northwest of England.

According to news reports, preliminary drilling around Blackpool indicates that there is 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, enough to trigger a ‘shale gas’ goldrush like that sweeping the US. In a report, the company claims that the deposits could create thousands of jobs in the region.

But while UK Energy Minister Charles Hendry said in an article in The Guardian newspaper yesterday that it is worth exploring the potential of shale gas, the finding is worrying environmentalists.

Green groups are wary of fracking, the process used to extract shale gas that involves injecting a high pressure mixture of sand, water and chemicals into the deposit, because of concerns about contamination of water supplies.

Earlier this year, Cuadrilla had to halt its test drilling following two tremors in the region, which are currently being investigated by the British Geological Survey.

The practice has been banned in some parts of the US, Canada and Switzerland, as well as France, which reportedly has large shale gas deposits, because of environmental concerns.

But Hendry says that shale gas exploration in the UK is governed by “one of the most robust and stringent regulatory frameworks in the world”, with any application subject to planning permission and scrutiny by the Environment Agency.

Environmental groups are also concerned that a ‘dash for gas’ could deflect focus and investment away from renewable energy development.

“Drilling for shale gas raises serious safety concerns and risks polluting water supplies – and it could take vital funding away from the clean energy solutions we know are safe and will work,” says Friends of the Earth campaigner Tony Bosworth. “There should be no more fracking in Britain until safety and environmental concerns have been properly addressed.”


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